Written by: Phillip Beneteau – Staff Writing Intern (@fantasyphilled)
Week 10 in the National Football League is upon us, and as some of us are desperately trying to sneak in to our fantasy football playoffs, others are simply looking for a new way to enjoy fantasy football. I believe that more and more people and money turn to Daily Fantasy Sports this time of the season because of lost hope in season long leagues. This is great because for those who have been playing DFS all season long, you already have loads of advantages; you know how to spot value, how roster construction breaks down, and which matchups and splits are the most profitable. All of this is based off the fact that when people play season long, like I do as well, you typically are more focused on your lineups and the waiver wire. So, if you have Tom Brady as your Quarterback, you know that Tom Brady will be in your starting lineup, you don’t need to research who has the best matchup. With that said, let’s dive in to a week that offers some fantastic expensive running back plays, and from what I can assume, expensive wide receivers may be the contrarian play of the week.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel: $7,700 – Pittsburgh Steelers
You may quickly interject and say that I completely missed out on the top four elite quarterback plays this week! While that may be true, I love the value of Roethlisberger this week at home against the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers are coming off a bye, which only helps Roethlisberger and the offence. I know I may be reading a little too much in to this, but with Tony Romo cleared to play, I have a feeling that the Steelers win this game by a touchdown and light the fire even more under the quarterback controversy in Dallas. With many nice names at the top, there is at least one thing I don’t like about every matchup. The only quarterback I will be taking that is in the top elite four is Tom Brady at home against a Seattle Seahawks team. Aside from that, I don’t have a problem with Aaron Rogers, but I think that you get a lot more value when paying down a bit for a quarterback this week.
Cam Newton (QB) – DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel: $7,800 – Carolina Panthers
While I don’t usually have two quarterbacks that are the same price point, Cam Newton needed to be added this week because I think that he is another great play to pay down for at the quarterback spot. Newton is at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have recently showed that their defence is back, but can still be had. I’m expecting close to a 25 point DraftKings point day which is well above his implied 20.4 DraftKings points based on salary projection. If Newton can manage to run one in, he is a stone cold lock for great production.
Marcus Mariota (QB) – DraftKings: $5,700, FanDuel: $7,400 – Tennessee Titans
While I think that Mariota is a much better play on DraftKings with his major savings, I would not fault you for playing him on either site. In Mariota’s last five games, he has averaged 25.76 DK points per game, with a high of 31.92 and a low of only 17.68. If he only managed his floor over the past five weeks, he is still returning three times value and a great play at the quarter back spot. Somehow, even with his season high points total last week on the road, Mariota still went down in price on DraftKings. I am expecting a +20 point game for Mariota as he takes on the Green Bay Packers at home who could also put up some points.
Mike Evans (WR) – DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: $8,500 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have no problem playing Antonio Brown is a stack with Ben Roethlisberger, but if you are not playing either wide receiver in a stack, I am going with Mike Evans. He is good to go after suffering a concussion in the Thursday Night game over 10 days ago. Evans is a lock for 12 targets and will possibly be playing another game with Peyton Barber at running back if Doug Martin is a no-go. I have reason to believe that Jay Cutler and the Chicago offence can put up some points, which means that Evans and the Buccaneers may be playing from behind, which is a great game script for Evans.
Alshon Jeffery (WR) – DraftKings: $6,600, FanDuel: $7,200 – Chicago Bears
Speaking of the Chicago Bears putting up points! I predict that Jeffery puts up his best numbers of the season coming off a bye week and his first touchdown catch of the season. Jeffery has been better with Jay Cutler behind center, and the best way to attack Tampa Bay is through the air this season. He is seriously under priced from the start of the season when he topped out at $8,000 in Week 2. I love a Cutler Jeffery stack which would allow alot of spare money for spending up at the running back position.
Jordan Matthews (WR) – DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $5,900 – Philadelphia Eagles
He is my favourite play for price this week as the Eagles could very well find themselves throwing the ball alot. Matthews has 17 receptions on 25 targets in the last two weeks as it looks like him and Carson Wentz have started to develop a very nice chemistry. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 289.9 passing yards and a game and if Wentz can find his touch at home, Matthews is in a prime spot to dominate the slot quick slants.
J.J. Nelson (WR) – DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel: $5,600 – Arizona Cardinals
If there is any part of the Arizona Cardinals pass catchers that I want to roster in a GPP, it’s J.J. Nelson. The guy is playing the John Brown role almost better than John Brown could do. He is a big play waiting to happen at any time. Another part I love about him is that if the Cardinals do get up to an early lead, because he is the third WR on the depth chart, or at least close to it behind Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Nelson should still be on the field later in the game. Plain and simple, last game managed eight catches on 12 target for 79 yards and a touchdown. If John Brown is out, I love him even more, but if John Brown is playing, I don’t expect them to play him much in a game that can easily be won with David Johnson and Nelson.
Dontrelle Inman (WR) DraftKings: $3,400, FanDuel: $5,300 – San Diego Chargers
With Travis Benjamin likely out, Inman should receive extra snaps and in turn, led to a very fruitful fantasy day! He is almost a lock on DraftKings as he is barely above the position minimum and is a lock for nine targets in my opinion. He is great salary relief and may go overlooked with a couple nice plays in the $4,000 range.
David Johnson (RB) – DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $9,400 – Arizona Cardinals
The only place I would consider fading him is on FanDuel as his price is very extreme and he doesn’t have bonuses. With that said, he is easily the best back and actually has the number one matchup on paper and is playing at home. All systems go. The guy is um..good.
Jay Ajayi (RB) – DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel: $7,800 – Miami Dolphins
Jay Ajayi has averaged 31.1 DraftKings points over his last three starts. He is clearly the go to guy in Miami and even managed three catches last week. We have seen San Diego be very susceptible to the run game and running backs this season. He is the exact same price as Devontae Booker, so if you are playing in a GPP, Booker may be the way to if you think Ajayi will be higher owned, but if you are simply playing on a hunch, Ajayi is the guy I’m going with.
Lamar Miller (RB) – DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel: $7,500 – Houston Texans
Coming off a Week 9 bye, the Houston Texans are looking to get a win on the road against divisional foe, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lamar Miller looks to be 100% after suffering a shoulder injury a couple weeks ago. The Texans view Miller as a workhorse back and in a game where he is facing a defence that is allowing 116.9 rushing yards against per game, I’m expecting big things from Miller. Just as he did in Week 6 against the Indianapolis Colts, I could see another explosion of a game from Miller on the ground.
Darren Sproles (RB) – DraftKings: $4,300, FanDuel: $5,100 – Philadelphia Eagles
He is looking like a new back this season and still flying very low under the radar in fantasy. Sproles is the number one back in Philadelphia as he has averaged 17 touches the last two weeks. I expect more of the same against an Atlanta Falcons team that has not been a force on defence this season as they rank 25th against the position in DraftKings points. Sproles is always good for a couple catches out of the backfield as we have seen with his 16 targets over the last two weeks. I’m expecting a +15 point game from Sproles at home.
Chris Ivory (RB) – DraftKings: $3,400, FanDuel: $5,200 – Jacksonville Jaguars
New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is looking to balance the teams running game which bodes well for Chris Ivory. Last week Ivory rushed for 107 yards on 18 attempts and has recorded a catch in each of the last four games. The Houston Texans are allowing 125.8 rushing yards against per game, and Ivory could be a steal at the sub $4,000 range.
Rob Gronkowski (TE) – DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel: $8,000 – New England Patriots
Ever heard of him? He’s good. Play him at home after a bye week where everyone is watching on Sunday Night Football.
Jimmy Graham (TE) – DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel: $6,600 – Seattle Seahawks
If you watched the Seattle Seahawks play against the Buffalo Bills on Monday you may have shed a tear like me when you were watching Jimmy Graham display the talent he had when he was in New Orleans. He’s a beast and if the Seahawks get in to a quick hole coming off a short week, they will need to be pass heavy, which plays right in to the hands of Jimmy Graham. The one warning I do have is that Bellichick is the best at eliminating a teams best weapon; which in this case could be Graham.
Zach Miller (TE) – DraftKings: $3,600, FanDuel: $5,400 – Chicago Bears
If you are playing on FanDuel, I would lean to play Zack Ertz who is coming off a very nice eight target, eight reception 97 yard performance and is the much cheaper play. If you are on DraftKings I can’t suggest another TE who I love more than Miller under $4,000. He had seven catches on 10 targets for 88 yards and now face the Buccanneers. If you even get five catches for 60 yards from him he is making a great value play. Play him with confidence and hope that Cutler gets in a grove.
Los Angeles Rams (D/ST) – DraftKings: $2,900, FanDuel: $4,600
The Rams are traveling to New York to play the Jets on Sunday. The Rams are known to be a hungry bunch and can force turnovers, which is recipe for success against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets. Usually my defence will be dictated primarily on how much money I have left over, and with my roster construstion this week, the Rams are a team that I am pivoting to with my budget.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions or comments tweet me @fantasyphilled !