Written by: Phillip Beneteau
Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season! The Thursday Night game showed us volatile the NFL could be as the Bears lost yet another player as QB Brian Hoyer has a broken and will most likely miss the rest of the NFL season. This week shall be coined the week of the chalky cheap Rbs as there are so many great value plays and an overwhelming amount of great Wrs that you will be paying up for this week. Let’s dive in!
Matt Ryan (QB) – DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel: $8,700 – Atlanta Falcons
As far as paying up at the QB position goes this week, Matt Ryan is a great bet. He has just two games of under 26.6 DK points this whole season. One of those games was on the road against the Denver Broncos, and he still managed a decent fantasy day. He has been a beast at home this season as Ryan is averaging 33.4 DK points in two home starts this season against Carolina and Tampa Bay. While neither of those teams screams amazing DEF, the San Diego Chargers are not much better as they are allowing almost 280 yards in the air so far this season. This game expects to be a shoot out and I’m loving the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stack.
Marcus Mariota (QB) – DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel: $7,900 – Tennessee Titans
Speaking of riding the hot hand, Marcus Mariota has been one of the top Qbs over the last two weeks of the season. Mariota recorded a 28.76 DK performance and a 30.52 DK point showing two weeks ago. Mariota is finding some new chemistry with his receivers and clearly the matchups are not hurting him. This week he will face the Colts at home. The Colts have been one of, if not the worst overall DEF this season which bodes well for a hot QB at home. If you are considering stacking some Titans I have no problem with stacking him with TE Delanie Walker, or WR Kendall Wright. If you go a little against the grain, a stack with RB Demarco Murray is also a great play!
Kirk Cousins (QB) – DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $7,300 – Washington Redskins
He is rating very well in a bunch of models I’ve see and made myself. This game is shaping up to be a high flying air attack as the Redskins and Lions both have defences that can be vulnerable. I expect the Lions to come out with a very heavy dose of passing and I expect Kirk Cousins to be doing the same in return. Redskins TE Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for this game and WR DeSean Jackson is listed as QUESTIONABLE, so even is Jackson is playing, I still love a Cousins and Jamieson Crowder or Pierre Garcon stack. Both have amazing floors for cash games, but have 20+ potential if this game gets to a shootout.
David Johnson (RB) – DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $8,500 – Arizona Cardinals
I’ll be completely honest, I don’t plan on paying up for any Rbs this week with so much value at the position. If I do end up paying up for a RB, Johnson is the man. I can see him going extremely under owned with the amount of value plays at the position and his matchup. Johnson has averaged 26.1 DK points per game so far this season and I could see the Cardinals going with a heavy dose of him to stay away from the Seahawks Cbs.
Spencer Ware (RB) – DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel: $7,000 – Kansas City Chiefs
While some people may think that QB Alex Smith is the player to target against an awful New Orleans Saints DEF, I am expecting the Chiefs to run the ball to play a clock possession game and to keep the ball out of the hands of Drew Brees. While some people may think that rostering RB Jamaal Charles is the way to to after last week after his touchdown, but I am expecting Ware to continue with the bulk of the carries.
Jacquizz Rodgers (RB) – DraftKings: $4,300, FanDuel: $5,600 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nothing makes me happier than knowing I get to roster plenty of Jacquizz Rodgers shares this weekend! His name makes me smile and his production and match up make me salivate. In his one start this season, in Week 5, Rodgers had 30 rushes and five catches. Mix in the fact that the San Francisco 49ers have the worst rushing DEF in the league, I have Rodgers as my overall top running back of the week. He will be chalky, but the fact is that he could and should easily return at least 4 times value, with the upside of 6-8 times. He is a must play!
Mike Gillislee (RB) – DraftKings: $3,000, FanDuel: $5,300 – Buffalo Bills
So long as LeSean McCoy is ruled OUT for this game, Gillislee is my second must play. His price and volume is too good to say no, especially if you are playing Cash games. He has averaged 6.9 yards per carry in his limited carries this season, but facing the 31st ranked rushing DEF, I expect a heavy and delicious dose of touches for Gillislee.
Julio Jones (WR) – DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $9,200 – Atlanta Falcons
I am not touching Antonio Brown with a 10 foot pole this week as Ben Roethlisberger is OUT. With that said, there is plenty of tasty matchups for some top Wrs which makes me super excited to spend up at WR for my rosters this week! Julio Jones is my top play this week at the position and a Ryan Jones stack is my favourite stack sandwich, yum! Jones has averaged a tasty 33.8 fantasy points at home this season. Play him…
A.J. Green (WR) – DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $8,500 – Cincinnati Bengals
I didn’t mention A.J. Green’s QB Andy Dalton, but he is certainly set up for a big day against the horrible Cleveland Browns Def, which is also missing CB Joe Haden. Green will be another WR I will be targeting, but I will probably limit my ownership simply because I think they could just get ahead early and possibly run Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard in to the ground. The Bengals are also getting back TE Tyler Eifert which could mean a few less redzone passes thrown his way, but all in all, Green is a still a dominant play in this matchup.
Mike Evans (WR) – DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel: $8,000 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you haven’t already heard, fellow WR Vincent Jackson has been put on IR. Jackson was averaging over six targets a game which will now be up for grabs. I expect Mike Evans to get a couple extra looks to his already incredible 62 looks in just five games. The 49ers are allowing 390 yards against on average this season, and while their rush DEF has been extremely suspect, I expect Evans to return 3.5-4x value on DraftKings, which is amazing with his price.
Pierre Garcon (WR) – DraftKings: $3,700, FanDuel: $6,100 – Washington Redskins
You may be saying, well yes Phil, we know that these top Wrs are solid, but we aren’t spending up for all three! You may be right, so here are some cheaper options to ease the spending! I don’t like him as much on FanDuel as he is far too expensive for my taste for a guy who is more of a target and short route runner. Garcon should get plenty of short looks with TE Jordan Reed out once again. Garcon saw 11 targets and made six receptions for 77 yards against the Eagles last week. This week the Redskins are facing the Detroit Lions who have allowed 271 yards, on average, through the air this season.
Marqise Lee (WR) – DraftKings: $3,200, FanDuel: $4,500 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Looking for essentially a punt play at WR? Look no further than Marqise Lee of the Jaguars. The Jaguars host the Oakland Raiders who have been horrific on DEF this season and are allowing over 300 passing yards to Qbs on the road this season. Blake Bortles could be in for a breakout game at home and Marqise Lee has been getting at least six targets for the past four weeks and should easily be worth his price tag!
Travis Kelce (TE) – DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel: $6,300 – Kansas City Chiefs
When I started writing this, I will admit that I started writing about TE Rob Gronkowski, then thought that my analysis probably wouldn’t matter much on the subject. He should go under owned this week with his price tag difference and with some amazing Wrs to pay up for, but if you do have the money, Gronkowski is always a top play. Kelce on the other hand, is a TE that I would only use in GPPs. He has shown that he has a flour of about 6 points and a ceiling of 20. In this case, he will face a New Orleans Saints defence that has been attrocious to say the least. In this case I think it may be a bit of a stretch to think he hits the 20 point mark but I do think five receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown do make him a viable TE play this week.
Cameron Brate (TE) – DraftKings: $2,900, FanDuel: $5,200 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I will be owning a lot of Cameron Brate this weekend as I simply love the position he is in! Brate is the number two receiving option in Tampa Bay now with Jackson out for the season, and his price on DraftKings is almost laughable. His absolute floor is about 5 points, while he has shown a ceiling of over 20 points already this season. I expect a very nice game returning at least 4.5-5 times value on DraftKings.
Tennessee Titans (DEF) – DraftKings: $2,500, FanDuel: $4,600
The Titans have a very under rated defence this season. They play in one of the easiest divisions which means they will get some solid matchups like this weeks matchup as they host the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans have not had under 4 DraftKings points in any game this season and have back-to-back games with six sacks. The Colts have allowed plenty of sacks this season and the Titans will look to lean on their d-line to create loads of pressure on Andrew Luck.