Written by: Alex McKinnon– Staff Writing Intern (@)
All ownership projections are based on Fantasy Aces $3 Thursday-Monday contest, which is a two-QB contest. Please note that all QB ownership projections are based on a two-qb contest but will still show disparagement between each QB. The following information is based on a Sunday Contest for DraftKings.
Highest Ownership Projected for QBs:
- Matt Ryan $7200 (20-25%)
- Andy Dalton $6000 (17-22%)
- Marcus Mariota $6000 (16-21%)
- Tom Brady $7900 (16-21%)
- Blake Bortles $6200 (10-15%)
Colin Kaepernick, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford and Kirk Cousins are also around 10%. Again, Fantasy Aces $3 Thursday-Monday contest includes the two matchups that would not be in something like the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and is also a two-quarterback contest, so the percentages will be scaled down. The two notable low-ownership options this week are Andrew Luck and Derek Carr. Facing a Titans defense that has had some success thus far, Luck and the Colts are on the verge of an early dismissal from any playoff conversation. At 2-4, it is heavily on Andrew Luck’s shoulders to turn the ship around quickly. At $7000, Luck should hover around 1% ownership and is a high-risk/high-reward option for tournament play. Despite the poor start, Andrew Luck has produced a 38 point game at home vs. Detroit and back to back games of 24.18 and 25.38 against Chicago and Houston. He is the ultimate garbage-time point getter and I don’t foresee any time during this game that the Colts will have a large lead. Derek Carr is coming off his worst performance of the season against a strong Chiefs defense. At $6300, he is in the middle of the pack as far as cost. Despite his poor performance last week, he has posted at least 23.76 points in 4 out of their 6 matchups. He does not have an incredibly high ceiling, only getting as much as 25.98 points this season. However, he faces a dismal Jaguars defense and still has a bevy of offensive weapons. Floating at around 5%, he is another solid play this week.
The best value this week is Tyrod Taylor against the Dolphins. The Bills are in the midst of a 4-game winning streak and have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot. At $5500, Taylor always is a threat in the running game and has slowly built some chemistry with his ragtag collection of Sammy Watkins replacements. LeSean McCoy has also been ruled out of Sunday’s contest leaving Tyrod Taylor and Mike Gillislee as the only options in the running game. He hasn’t posted any giant fantasy numbers, but he does have a strong floor for a quarterback in his price range. Additionally, he is also projected to only be around 1% owned.
The sleeper pick this week is Landry Jones at $5000. Despite his obvious replacement of Big Ben in a strong offense, his ownership should still sit below 5%. He does have a very tough matchup against the New England Patriots, however he does have the greatest receiver in the game in Antonio Brown as well as the best check-down option in the NFL with Le’Veon Bell. Even if the Patriots win this game big, Landry Jones should be able to put together a decent game in the primetime matchup.
| Running Backs
Highest Ownership Projected for RBs
- Jacquizz Rodgers $4300 (50-55%)
- DeMarco Murray $7200 (45-50%)
- Mike Gillislee $3000 (33-38%)
- Devonta Freeman $5900 (7-13%)
- James White $4600 (6-11%)
Additionally, Spencer Ware and David Johnson should be near 10% this week. The most notable low ownership options include Le’Veon Bell, Jay Ajayi and Christine Michael. Despite being pinned with a backup quarterback and a tough matchup against the Patriots, Le’Veon Bell’s floor is one of the highest in the game. He is projected around 5-8% ownership but will cost you $8000. The price tag is steep and intimidating but this is a situation that should be great for Bell. The Patriots mantra has always been bend but don’t break, which includes taking out the opponent’s number one target, Antonio Brown in this instance, and allowing short to medium gains while protecting the explosive plays. This will allow Le’Veon Bell to see an outrageous amount of touches and carve out 6 to 12 yard plays throughout the game. Additionally, the Steelers will likely be trailing during a lot of this game. That being said, Le’Veon Bell is a giant piece of the air attack and should see plenty of pass targets. He may be robbed of some enzone appearances but his all-purpose yards combined with his catches should make him a great option even in tournament play. Jay Ajayi may see his backfield partner, Arian Foster, return to the field on Sunday which seems to have scared away some DFS players. Projected around 3-5% ownership, Ajayi is still a strong candidate to have a ton of touches. Coming off of a 204 yard, 2 TD performance, the second year running back is still at $4500. With Foster still banged up, there is no reason for Ajayi to loss many touches. Christine Michael is also in the 3-5% ownership range which is likely due to his $6700 cost. The Seahawks running back has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing once this season, but has produced 23.3, 20 and 28.1 points in his last three outings thanks to his touchdown production and receiving 12 targets over the past three games. He is a little bit risky as a top-5 most expensive option, but he has really implemented himself as an important cog in the Seattle offense.
The best value this week is absolutely Jacquizz Rodgers. At $4300, Rodgers is projected to see a ton of action coming off of a 20.9 point game against the Panthers. He has always been a part of the passing game throughout his career, but now he is seeing the carries to go with it with Doug Martin absent. Facing a 49ers defense which is 29th against the run with an offense (San Francisco) which cannot stay on the field, Rodgers definitely deserves the large ownership projection.
Your sleepers this week are Matt Asiata, Jeremy Hill and Isaiah Crowell. All three are rather established veterans who have had strong performances in the past, but are all under 5% ownership projection heading into this week. Asiata, at $3500, is coming off of a 19.9 point performance for the Vikings. He still hands over many of the carries to Jerick McKinnon but Asiata is present in a lot of passing situations and dominates the goal line. The Vikings play the Eagles this week and should rely heavily on Asiata and McKinnon. Jeremy Hill, $4000, was silent against the Bengals while his teammate Giovani Bernard saw most of the action. The Bengals face the Browns this weekend in a game that they should see a lead in for most of the game. Despite his presence, Bernard hasn’t been stellar in his increased role in the offense. It is risky, but Jeremy Hill is a good play this week if you want to make a contrarian pick with touchdown potential. Isaiah Crowell will be on the other side of the field in the Bengals/Browns matchup this week and is coming off of back-to-back terrible performances. He has sunk down to a cost of $4000 and is also projected to be around 1% owned. Despite his poor production in recent weeks, he does have a pair of great performances earlier in the year and is still seeing the field pretty often. This is my pick if you want to go low-risk/high-reward with his big-play abilities.
| Wide Receivers
Highest Ownership Projected for WRs:
- Mike Evans $7800 (32-37%)
- Julio Jones $9200 (32-37%)
- AJ Green $8600 (19-24%)
- Allen Robinson $7300 (15-20%)
- Marvin Jones $7000 (8-13%)
TY Hilton is likely the only other wide receiver to be around 10% this week leaving a large amount of low-ownership options for Week 7. The most notable low-ownership options will be Golden Tate, Brandin Cooks and Antonio Brown. Golden Tate FINALLY broke out last week against the Rams and is definitely not seeing any respect for the upcoming matchup against the Redskins. Tate, $4900, was able to put together a 33.8 point performance on 8 catches, 165 yards and a score. He saw 10 targets after an abysmal 5 game-stretch to start the season. He should be around 2-4% this week. Cooks is in a similar situation as Tate coming off of a giant performance and no uptick in ownership. At $7500, he is certainly a high risk pick and sits around the same 2-4% projection. Drew Brees is well known for spreading the ball around from week-to-week and has never relied on just one receiver which makes Cooks a dangerous decision this week. He is coming off of a 7 catch, 173 yards and a TD and has a minimum of 6 targets all season. Antonio Brown is the ultimate contrarian play this week. With Big Ben going down with an injury, he is now paired with backup QB Landry Jones in a matchup against the Patriots. In Landry’s one true start last season (Week 7 against the Chiefs), Antonio Brown caught six balls for 124 yards. At $9300, there is almost no chance he is worth that amount of $ this week, but if you want to go against the grain, Brown will only be owned at around 1%.
The best value plays this week are Kendall Wright, Mohamed Sanu and Julio Jones (it will make sense). Kendall Wright, $3700, finally had his coming out party after recovering from a hamstring injury. 8 catches on 9 targets from 133 yards and a touchdown is a great way to get back on the scene. Despite the risk of being a one-hit wonder as well as playing with Marcus Mariota who is far from consistent, the matchup against the Colts is certainly going to be a shootout in Tennessee. Adding his price tag with his 1% ownership projection, Wright gives you the ability to pay higher at other positions. Mohamed Sanu and Julio Jones head to Week 7 against San Diego with one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Matt Ryan has been on fire and the Chargers are certainly not in line to change that narrative. I believe Matt Ryan and Julio Jones ($9200) will be the top point getters this week and adding Mohamed Sanu at $4400 is an excellent three man stack. Sanu will be at around 2% and is coming off of a 10 target game with a touchdown.
The best sleepers will be Pierre Garcon, Adam Thielen and Quincy Enunwa. All three of these options will sit around 1-3% and can be used to fill holes with limited salary cap left. Pierre Garcon, currently at $3700, has quietly been one of the most consistent performers of the season. His target totals have gone 6, 7, 7, 5, 7 and this past week he saw 11. He has yet to have a 100-yard game and only has one TD on the season but his targets are there and seem to be increasing. The Redskins will be visiting Detroit this weekend and the Lions are the 27th ranked team against the wide receiver position. With DeSean Jackson listed as questionable against the Lions this week, Garcon could finally have that 20+ point performance. Adam Thielen was a sleeper pick a few weeks ago and went off for 7 catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. DraftKings still kept Thielen at $3700 and he is only around 2% projected. The Vikings are coming off of a bye week, so hopefully the low ownership is due to people not noticing him last week. The Eagles cornerbacks are beatable and despite the fact that Stefon Diggs may return this week, Thielen should still be able to have a nice performance. Enunwa has shown flashes of brilliance this year alongside Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Decker is now on the IR leaving Enunwa as the solidified #2 option. The biggest issue is the quarterback position with Geno Smith taking over the reigns. If you can get past the huge risk in the backfield, Enunwa is a great play at $4600.
| Tight Ends
Highest Ownership Projected at TEs:
- Rob Gronkowski $7200 (20-25%)
- Hunter Henry $3600 (18-23%)
- Jack Doyle $2500 (13-18%)
- Delanie Walker $4900 (6-11%)
- Travis Kelce $5300 (5-10%)
Every other tight end should remain under 5% ownership. A few notable low-ownership tight ends are Jimmy Graham and Coby Fleener. Jimmy Graham, $5800, has seemingly returned to form coming off a strong three games stretch of 24, 20.3 and 14.9. He is slightly pricey, but being below 5%, he is a likely a better option than Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce. Coby Fleener, like Brandin Cooks, is a part of an explosive offense which spreads the ball. Against Carolina and Atlanta, Fleener put up 25.6 and 26.9 but has also had games of 4.9 against both New York and San Diego in the last four weeks. He is a big risk, but at 2% and $3800, there is a lot of upside.
My opinion on this week’s slate of tight end options is firmly behind Jack Doyle and Rob Gronkowski. Jack Doyle, $2500, finally has his shot to shine in the Colts offense. After pushing him as a sleeper for a few weeks this season, he is now the number one tight end and will likely see most if not all of the snaps with Dwayne Allen out for at least a few weeks. He has three touchdowns this season and has produced modestly despite being lower on the depth chart. For $2500, he is an amazing play this week. Gronkowski, $7200, is back. Coming off of a 7 catch, 162 yard and a touchdown, the combination of Brady and Gronk is ready to rip the league apart. His price tag is high, but it has always been dangerous betting against Gronkowski. In a very thin field of tight ends this week, I HIGHLY suggest sticking with the high price monster in Gronkowski or jumping into the deep end with the low price, high reward option of Jack Doyle.
Highest Ownership Projected for Ds:
- Baltimore Ravens $2800 (15-20%)
- New England Patriots $2900 (14-19%)
- Buffalo Bills $3400 (8-13%)
- Minnesota Vikings $3700 (8-13%)
- Cincinnati Bengals $3600 (6-12%)
Every other defense is likely 4% or lower with no visible stud pick this week. The best value this week is with the Raiders and Chiefs. The Raiders, $2400, face a Jaguars team that is starting to turn it around despite a horrible start. Blake Bortles has a strong arm and fits the mold of a traditional quarterback and has had moderate success this season. However, he has thrown 7 INTs and has fumbled the ball twice this season. The Raiders defense has been an utter disappointment this year and will likely give up 20+ points to the Jaguars, but they should be able to grab some points off turnovers during this matchup. The Chiefs at $2600 are an interesting play this weekend. They face the potent offense of New Orleans but have had a pair of strong games against Oakland and the Jets. This will certainly be an contrarian play, but it will save you some $ for other positions.