Written by: David Parks – Staff Writing Intern (@_Parskie)
| Auburn (Bet: -9) vs. Arkansas
Admittedly, I don’t love this line for Auburn. What I do love, however, is the public splits.
As of now, Arkansas is attracting 100% of ML bets in addition to 78% of bets ATS per Vegas Insider. Anytime a split is that lopsided it raises a red flag. When a split is that lopsided toward the dog it raises multiple red flags.
The only thing Vegas loves more than a massive public favorite is when a god turns into a massive public dog. And that’s just what we have here.
If you caught the most recent edition of the Power Rankings, you’ll know I’m bullish on Auburn… Specifically their defense. Only once this year has Auburn allowed more than 20 points, a home game against Texas A&M. A closer look at that game reveals two things: 1) Texas A&M busted an 89-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to make the score more lopsided than the game actually was. 2) Auburn’s defense held the Ags to five field goals despite often being saddled with short fields.
This is purely a market fade – fingers crossed.
Final: Auburn 27 – Arkansas 14
| Oklahoma/Texas Tech (Bet: Over 84)
One of the kicks I get out of watching the Big 12 is how laughable Texas Tech’s defense is and how nobody seems to hold Kliff Kingsbury accountable for it.
People seem to be so enthralled with Kingsbury’s looks that they overloook (see what I did there?) the fact he’s shown zero ability to construct a defense to compete on the MAC level, much less in the Big 12.
If one was to take out the Stephen F. Austin game to open the year, Tech is giving up an average of 44.8 ppg…. And that’s counting a game against Kansas in which they allowed only 19 points. If we go back to last year and look at what Tech did against the Big 12 juggernauts, here’s what we see:
• 45 allowed in a win vs. Texas
• 44 allowed in a win vs. Kansas State
• 31 allowed in a loss @ WVU
• 70 allowed in a loss vs. OSU
• 63 allowed in a loss @ OU
• 63 allowed in a loss vs. Baylor
• 55 allowed in a loss vs. TCU
In Tech’s defense – they scored less than 40 points themselves only twice during that stretch including against WVU.
Something tells me nothing is going to change this week in Lubbock as Joe Mixon comes rolling in.
Final: Oklahoma 59 – Texas Tech 49
| UCLA/Utah (Bet: Under 44)
One of the last bets to hit the board this week due to Josh Rosen’s status being iffy. The desert finally released the numbers and much like Arkansas/Auburn, there’s a huge discrepancy in the public splits, with massive backing going toward the dog.
There’s UCLA, sitting at 3-4 overall, laying seven points at home to Utah, a 6-1 team. I wasn’t surprised to see UCLA open as a favorite, but I was surprised at the number. Utah historically struggles away from home, as evidence by their loss at Cal earlier this year as well as their narrow 19-14 win over hapless Oregon State.
Given that Rosen will likely be less than 100 percent for the Bruins and Utah’s knack for pounding the rock, I’d expect a low-scoring game decided in the fourth quarter.
Final: UCLA 20 – Utah 16