Written by: Phillip Beneteau – Staff Writer (@FantasyPhilled)
In this segment I will be talking about three players from every position that I strongly believe will outperform their current ADP. I used Fantasy Pros ADP numbers for all my ADPs as they include: Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, FFC, NFL, Fantrax, and DW.
For starters, I am not one to reach for a QB in the first four rounds possibly even five rounds of a draft this year with so many quality Qbs later in the draft. My strategy this season has been fairly simple: grab value, and load up on WR and RB, and possibly grab Rob Gronkowski if he’s there in the 2nd round. The three later Qbs I’ve been targeting this season are:
Tom Brady – New England Patriots (QB: 8 / ADP: 64th)
Tom Brady is suspended the first four games of the season, which is no doubt why his value is so low. With the loss of Dion Lewis for probably half the season, if not more, more weight will be put on Brady to deliver once he returns. Brady is getting older, but when you get a player of his quality in the 7th round or later, that is music to my ears.
Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins(QB: 14 / ADP: 112th)
There is a handful, actually more like a basket full of talent I absolutely love here, but Kirk Cousins stood out to me. Cousins had an incredible end to last season as he and Jordan Reedmade sweet music connecting for five touchdowns over the last four games of the regular season. The addition of rookie WR Josh Doctson and the uncertainty in the run game is hinting towards an all out arial attack from the Redskins this season. I love him in the later rounds as a high end QB2 but top 8 upside.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets (QB: 22 / ADP: 173rd)
I could have easily chosen any of the other QBs I love in the latter rounds like Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, or Tyrod Taylor, but I decided to chose a QB I have not heard much talk about this offseason. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s two main targets areWR Brandon Marshall and WR Eric Decker, both whom are being drafted 8th among Wrs and 24th among Wrs respectively. Add in another RB who can catch like Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, and you’ve got yourself some of the best hands players in the league. Fitzpatrick finished around the 11th – 12th best QB last season based on scoring systems and could easily replicate those numbers this season. I’ve got FitzMagic once against finishing in the top 15 barring injury and should be a great floor QB to those who ride with two QBs on their roster.
| Running Backs
C.J. Anderson – Denver Broncos (RB:14 / ADP: 32nd)
I have yet to be able to snag any C.J. Anderson shares in my first two money drafts of the season because of draft position, but he is definitely one I’ve got my eye on. Anderson will be relied on heavily this season as the team is transitioning from their arial attack to a more balanced and run focused approach. Anderson is currently being drafted in the 4th round in most leagues and in my mind, is a rock solid RB1 this season.
Rashad Jennings – New York Giants (RB: 34 / ADP: 90th)
Somehow, the fantasy world has forgotten that coaches have stated Rashad Jennings will be their prime running back this season. While most of the fantasy world is salivating at the arial attack for the Giants this season which will feature Odell Beckham Jr and rookie Sterling Shepard, someone will still need to be running the ball. Jennings isn’t even being drafted as an RB3 in standard leagues. The drop off has gone too far, and I see Jennings as a top 20 back this season. He has good hands and has averaged just over 30 catches per season in his last three years. If you can snag him in the 7th or 8th rounds, I think you are getting amazing value.
Bilal Powell – New York Jets (RB: 43 / ADP: 132nd)
Go take a look at the players who are being drafted around his ADP, go ahead, I’ll give you a minute…
Good, you’re back! Running backs like Charles Sims, Tevin Coleman, Alfred Morris, and Chris Johnson are all in a close area to Bilal Powell’s current ADP. Over the last six games Powell played last season, he averaged over 10 touches per game. While you may say that well now he has to compete withMatt Forte this season, I would like to remind you that both Powell and Forte signed almost identical contracts this offseason. Forte will turn 31 years old this season and has over 2,000 carries in his career, not to mention the 487 catches. While the RB has been extremely durable in his career, only missing eight games in his eight year career, I just don’t expect him to be healthy all season. Powell ran alongside Chris Ivorylast season and still managed 70 rushing attempts and 47 catches in just 11 games. If you are in a PPR league, Powell jumps even further up the list as I still expect him to be the passing down back.
| Wide Receivers
Donte Moncrief – Indianapolis Colts (WR: 28 / ADP: 65th)
I must admit, I have seen talk about Donte Moncrief this offseason and I am also drinking the Kool-Aide. Most people in the fantasy world are expecting a bounce back season for QB Andrew Luck who was limited to just seven games last season because of an injury. As much as I know RB Frank Gore is a machine, I have to believe that the Colts will be showcasing their air-attack this season. I don’t think WR T.Y. Hilton should be as high as he is (ADP: 34th) since I’m predicting that both put up very similar numbers in a 1A / 1B platform. If you are in the middle of the fifth round in your league and you have yet to grab 2/3 quality Wrs, he is the guy I would be looking at!
Devin Funchess – Carolina Panthers (WR: 48 / ADP: 150th)
I can already see Devin Funchess’ ADP rising after the coach came out to say that he is pushing WR Kelvin Benjamin for the number one spot this offseason. While I don’t see that necessarily happening, it does sound like he is developing in to the WR the Panthers wanted when they spent a 2nd round pick on him in 2015. Funchess managed just 36 catches on 72 targets last season to end the year with 546 yards and six touchdowns. Not exactly WR2/3 numbers, but with the loss ofCB Josh Norman this offseason, the Panthers may be in more shootouts and higher scoring games. I believe that Funchess is a great WR4 to start the year and could definitely become a WR3 with a nice role being carved out in the offense this season.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals (WR: 65 / ADP: 195th)
I’ve drafted Tyler Boyd in the 13th round of a 10 team league and at the end of the 11th round in a 12 team league this season. There has been loads of chatter around the bengals this season that they are looking for a WR2 and someone to step up from the departures of WR Mohamad Sanu and WR Marvin Jones. Boyd looks like a perfect fit for starting duties opposite WR A.J. Green and should benefit from the beginning of the season as there is worry that TE Tyler Eifert may not be ready to start the season. If so, Boyd’s targets will jump and he will be a Week 1 gold mine! My advice, get him before anyone else has the chance to! I have Boyd as potential WR3 status this season and should be one of the top scoring rookies this season.
| Tight Ends
Delanie Walker- Tennessee Titans (TE: 5 / ADP: 58th)
I’m not saying that I’m going to be jumping out of my chair if Walker is still available in the 5th round, but what I like most about his position is that I think after the consensus 1/2/3 TEs go (Rob Gronkowski / Jordan Reed / Greg Olsen), I believe that Walker is the next best option. Walker was the fourth highest scoring TE last season and put up career numbers with rookie QB Marcus Mariota. If 94 catches, 1,088 yards and six touchdowns don’t make you smile, then I’m at a loss for words! Walker should be able to replicate those numbers and quite easily improve the TD and yards as well! I like him more thanTravis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, Coby Fleener, and Gary Barnidge who are all going around his ADP. He is the number 1 receiving option and will lead the team once again in all of those categories.
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles (TE: 10 / ADP: 102nd)
Around the 10th round when TEs are going to be flying off the board, Zach Ertz is the one I will be lining up in my queue. Ertz finished last season with 35 catches on 46 targets, for 450 yards and a TD. Those stats are just from his last four games of the season. Go ahead, salivate for a second… Ertz could have easily helped your fantasy team last season to a championship and he is now being drafted as a low TE1. Sign me up! The Philadelphia Eagles are a hot garbage mess this offseason and are simply throwing whatever they can at the wall to see what will stick. I have Ertz being that sticking point as he will be relied heavily upon behind number one option WR Jordan Matthews. Whoever wins the QB job, Ertz should be able to snag plenty of check downs in the middle of the field to help this offense move the ball. I am expecting top 7 TE numbers with a TE5 upside. Draft accordingly!
Vance McDonald – San Francisco 49ers (TE: 30 / ADP: 287 or undrafted)
This is one of those 16 team leagues or a deep league pick as there are plenty of TEs that should outperform Vance McDonald this season, but one that you should still keep an eye on. McDonald started coming in to his own after the 49ers traded Vernon Davis to the Broncos last season. McDonald has been quoted by some to be having the “best offseason of his career” and with new coaching and a new scheme in San Francisco this season, I’m expecting McDonald to be a serviceable TE. He will likely go undrafted in most to all leagues, but he is one I’ll be keeping on my watch list for the greater part of the season if he does catch on nicely with this high octane Chip Kelly offence.
Thanks for reading and check back soon to read my next segment on my Three’s Company: Overvalue ADP!