Written by: Coleman Bahr – Staff Writing Intern (@ColemanBahr)
We only have seven games on tap tonight, and while pitching is not plentiful, there is still a few guys that I can roll with. In this article I am going to preview the top cash, and tournament pitchers, along with a few pitchers I am going to be targeting hitters against. With that being said, let’s get to it!
Adam Wainwright – DraftKings: $10,400 FanDuel: $9,200 – St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright is a little bit more expensive than what we are used to seeing, but he’s deserved it. He is coming off his best outing of the season where he tossed a three-hit, complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins. In his last three starts, he has only allowed one run, and he’s pitched at least seven innings in every start. Tonight offers a much easier matchup against the San Diego Padres who are probably the worst team in the league against righties. I would love this matchup even more in Petco, but I can still roll with Wainwright at Busch Stadium, and the Padres may be a little bit more fatigued than usual coming off a doubleheader yesterday.
Jerad Eickhoff – DraftKings: $7,300 FanDuel: $8,100 – Philadelphia Phillies
“Home sweet home” has never been a more accurate statement for Jerad Eickhoff this season. His home earned run average (ERA) is 2.46 compared to a 5.51 ERA on the road, and the difference between his strikeout rate, and walk rate is 7.1% higher at home compared to his road starts. Tonight he squares off against the Miami Marlins who don’t strikeout a ton against righties, but they realistically only have one hitter who can hit righties well, and that is Christian Yelich. Eickhoff has been on fire lately, allowing two runs or less in four of his last five appearances, the only exception coming at Coors Field, and you can expect another stellar start from him tonight.
Francisco Liriano – DraftKings: $6,800 FanDuel: $7,900 – Pittsburgh Pirates
It is always hard to recommend Francisco Liriano because he has the highest walk rate among all qualified pitchers this season, but you have to love his upside against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers strike out the fifth most against lefties, and they also strike out the most in the league while on the road. Liriano has also been a much better pitcher at home from an ERA perspective, his home ERA sits at 3.67, and his road ERA is 6.52. This pick could definitely back fire as the Brewers have four hitters with an isolated power (ISO) over .200 against southpaws, but seven of their nine projected starters for today’s game have a strikeout rate over 20% when facing lefties this season. Liriano also comes at a nice discount, so he allows you to fit in the best hitters of the day.
| Pitchers to Target Hitters Against
Matt Garza – Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Garza is a shell of his former self, this season he has a 5.74 ERA, and a 12.8% strikeout rate, both of which are among the worst numbers of his career. Today presents a tough task for him against the Pittsburgh Pirates. At first, you would think it is a good thing for Garza that the Pirates will start mainly right-handed bats, but Garza has actually struggled a lot more with righties than lefties this season. Against righties, he has surrendered a .369 batting average, and a .516 slugging percentage, while he has only allowed a .271 batting average, and a .463 slugging percentage to lefties. The main bats I would look to are Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco, and for stacking purposes I would load up on the heart of the order. The Pirates are projected for 5.1 runs at the moment, and they should have numerous scoring opportunities all game long.
Mike Foltynewicz – Atlanta Braves
Mike Foltynewicz has very unique batted ball numbers with high fly ball rate, and a low groundball percentage against lefties, but a low fly ball rate, and a high groundball rate against righties. Any time a pitcher with fly ball tendencies heads to Coors Field, I have to give the hitters some consideration no matter what. Tonight I am stacking up on all the Coors lefties as not only does Foltynewicz allow more fly balls to lefties, but overall he has struggled with lefties with a .359 weighted on base average, and a .323 ISO. The Rockies will be a popular stacking option as they always are in Coors Field, and it should pay off tonight against Foltynewicz.
That’s all I have for today, thanks for reading! If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ColemanBahr, good luck tonight!