Fantasy MLB

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball: Pitching Preview – Saturday, July 16th, 2016


Written by: Coleman Bahr – Staff Writing Intern (@ColemanBahr)

Today, we have a 14 game slate on our hands, but there’s really no aces taking the mound, and it makes for a pretty ugly pitching slate. In this article I’m going to preview the top cash, and tournament pitchers, along with a few pitchers I’m going to be targeting hitters against. With that being said, let’s get to it!

| Pitchers to Target in Cash Games

Chris Tillman – DraftKings: $10,600, FanDuel: $8,700 – Baltimore Orioles

In terms of safety, Chris Tillman has one of the best match-ups on the board facing the Tampa Bay Rays in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. Tillman is coming off of back to back one run outings, and he should be able to have similar success tonight against the Rays. The Rays have the second highest strikeout rate against righties in the league, and they have the second lowest on base percentage (OBP) to further support Tillman’s case. Tillman is a pretty mediocre strikeout pitcher with a 21.1% strikeout rate, but for a cash game I can settle with a quality start, and I expect just that from him tonight.

Jeff Samardzija – DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel: $9,200 – San Francisco Giants

Samardzija also has a very safe matchup against the San Diego Padres, who struggle against righties, and this game is in Petco Park, one of the best pitchers parks in the league. The Padres have the worst OBP against righties, and they also have the lowest walk per strikeout ratio (BB/K) in the league. Much like Tillman, Samardzija is an average strikeout pitcher, but the Padres’ third highest strikeout rate against righties should provide more strikeout opportunities for him in tonight’s matchup. Samardzija is appropriately priced on both sites, and he should be able to go into the seventh while picking up the win in tonight’s contests against the Padres.

| Pitchers to Target in Tournaments

Brandon McCarthy – DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $8,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers

In his first two starts off the DL, McCarthy has been absolutely fantastic, picking up two wins, and a quality start in both games. He also has flashed some strikeout upside with a 35.9% strikeout rate, striking out 14 batters in 10 innings. His longevity has been a problem so far, only lasting five innings in both starts, but he should be able to start going deeper into games as he gets back into the swing of things. Tonight presents a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks, but the ballpark is less than optimal as its being played in of the best hitter’s parks in the league. However, the Diamondbacks are a below average team against righties with the fifth highest strikeout rate, and the second lowest BB/K ratio. The only threats they have are Jake Lamb, and Paul Goldschmidt, but if he can get through them two he shouldn’t have much trouble with the rest of the lineup. This is definitely a risky play due to the fact that he may get pulled in the fifth inning again, but if he can go into the sixth or the seventh he can possibly pick up around eight strikeouts, and he is currently the third biggest favorite on the day so he has a good chance at a win also.

Matt Shoemaker – DraftKings: $7,700 FanDuel: $8,100 – Los Angeles Angels

Shoemaker hasn’t been as impressive in his last two starts, but he has faced off against two of the elite offenses in the league; the Boston Red Sox, and the Baltimore Orioles, both on the road. Shoemaker has preferred pitching in Anaheim this season with his home earned run average (ERA) significantly lower than his road ERA. Tonight’s matchup is against the Chicago White Sox at Anaheim, and they really don’t present much of a threat against righties with no batters that own a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) over 105. Since May 21 st , Shoemaker has a 27.9% strikeout rate accompanied by a 3.4% walk rate, and his batting average against is only .248. Shoemaker has seen a slight drop off in price due to his recent performance, but I believe he has really only struggled due to his tough match-ups, and tonight he should excel against a White Sox squad who has struggled to hit righties all season long.

| Pitchers to Target Hitters Against

Eduardo Rodriguez – Boston Red Sox

The worst pitcher on this slate is Rodriguez, and it’s really not close in my opinion. So far this season he owns an 8.59 ERA, and he has been getting absolutely mashed by right handed bats. Against righties, he has allowed a .421 weighted on base average (wOBA), a .355 isolated power (ISO), and every home run he has allowed this season has come from a righty. The Yankees usually don’t throw out too many righties on any given night, but I expect a few more than usual to be in the lineup tonight. The Yankees have the second highest implied run total of the night, and they should have no problem getting runs on the board tonight.

Archie Bradley – Arizona Diamondbacks

Archie Bradley has really struggled at home this season with a 5.87 earned run average, and nine of his ten home runs allowed have come at home. Chase Field has not been kind to Bradley, his ISO allowed at Chase Field is .303, compared to .131 when on the road. Tonight he faces off against the Dodgers, who currently have the largest implied run total of the night, and they definitely showed their firepower last night by putting up 13 runs. I would look to the lefties in this matchup as Bradley has surrendered a .311 batting average, and a .667 slugging percentage at home against lefties. Bradley hasn’t been able to find his groove at home yet this season, and until he does he makes a great target for your hitters.

That’s all I have for today, thanks for reading! If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ColemanBahr, good luck tonight!

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